Will the Iran war push more people towards EVs?

[blohot]

So, I’ve been thinking about the situation over in Iran and what it might mean for us here in the UK when it comes to buying cars. You probably know that right now, about 22 out of every 100 new cars sold in the country are electric. That number has been stuck there for a little while. But with everything kicking off in the Middle East and the price of crude oil shooting up, I’m starting to wonder if that’s going to change. Will this war finally push more people towards electric vehicles?

Of course, I am aware that EV owners are not going to be immune to rising prices, thanks to the orange turnip in the US but we are still going to be way better off than ICE car owners who are going to face the direct costs.

So, is this going to be the tipping point? While I don't expect people to go rushing to EV dealerships, are we going to see EVs gain traction over the coming months? I suspect, this is going to happen, especially, if the war continues well into summer.

 

[MG Clive]

I think it will only make a difference if the fuel prices don't go back down to 'normal' levels, within a month or two, in other words, if this is just a short term crisis.

But if the Iran situation impacts us for a long time, and if fuel prices remain high, then we may well see a gradual rise in EV ownership, but probably no more than about 1% per year.

 

[blohot]

I think it will only make a difference if the fuel prices don't go back down to 'normal' levels, within a month or two, in other words, if this is just a short term crisis.

But if the Iran situation impacts us for a long time, and if fuel prices remain high, then we may well see a gradual rise in EV ownership, but probably no more than about 1% per year.

I saw some talking heads on TV saying that the crude oil prices are going to remain in triple digits for the next few years. So 'Pump Anxiety' is going to be a real thing.

 

[Ian Key]

If someone was about to change their car it might influence them to consider getting an EV whereas previously it might have been lower on their options.

My friend's partner was considering changing her car and because of the increasing fuel prices she bought an ex-demonstrator BYD Dolphin yesterday.

 

[blohot]

If someone was about to change their car it might influence them to consider getting an EV whereas previously it might have been lower on their options.

My friend's partner was considering changing her car and because of the increasing fuel prices she bought an ex-demonstrator BYD Dolphin yesterday.

I read somewhere that a couple of days after the war started, there was a big crowd at a Surrey dealership. There is no doubt that there is a renewed interest in EVs right now

 

[T1 Terry]

I think there will be more of rush to switch to EV if they start petrol rationing like in 1979 over here where they had the odd and even number plate thing and a limit to $10 per purchase I think it was, probably the equivalent to $100 these days Sounds crazy but that's only around 35 ltrs of fuel at current prices ....

T1 Terry

 

[Black estate]

Probably see the same in haulage

 

[T1 Terry]

Probably see the same in haulage

There is already a company making major inroads into converting older prime movers to EV and battery swapping Google Search

T1 Terry

 

[Ruislip Resident]

If someone was about to change their car it might influence them to consider getting an EV whereas previously it might have been lower on their options.

My friend's partner was considering changing her car and because of the increasing fuel prices she bought an ex-demonstrator BYD Dolphin yesterday.

And once they have an EV they are very unlikely to switch back.

 

[Micropop]

Are there any incentives for buying EV's in the UK?
In Norway, EV's have had massive tax exemptions, like no VAT, discounted parking, ferry fares, free driving on toll roads etc. They are gradually reducing the incentives now, but over 95% of cars sold are now electric.

 

[siteguru]

We used to have incentives, like grants for getting home charge points and zero VED ("road tax"), but they've been removed .. the government income from fuel taxes (duty and VAT) has reduced as more and more EVs have been bought, so rather than find other ways to recover that income (e.g. income tax) they've decided just to hammer EV owners instead.

 

[T1 Terry]

We used to have incentives, like grants for getting home charge points and zero VED ("road tax"), but they've been removed .. the government income from fuel taxes (duty and VAT) has reduced as more and more EVs have been bought, so rather than find other ways to recover that income (e.g. income tax) they've decided just to hammer EV owners instead.

We had a period where the govt was subsidising people to convert their vehicles to LPG .... slowly these subsidies faded away, then a rather greedy prime minister decided to add the fuel excise to a clean burning fuel that Australia had an abundance of that it was simply burning off as waste otherwise .....

That resulted in the price of LPG to constantly climb to the point that people stopped buying LPG, so service stations stopped selling LPG and repair centres stopped fixing LPG problems ......
Now this latest war has pushed the difference between LPG and petrol to around 2 1/2 times to 3 times cheaper to use LPG ...... but all the service stations have already removed their LPG bowsers .......

The govt would still have been collecting their fuel excise tax if they hadn't been so greedy and pushed the excise up to the same as petrol and diesel, so now people are moving to LNG, CNG and EV, no fuel excise on those, so they lose again ......

T1 Terry

 

[Bam Bam]

Are there any incentives for buying EV's in the UK?
In Norway, EV's have had massive tax exemptions, like no VAT, discounted parking, ferry fares, free driving on toll roads etc. They are gradually reducing the incentives now, but over 95% of cars sold are now electric.

All the earlier assistance in the UK was removed, though a few things have been added back on.

One is a grant on the purchase of a new EV. The idea there is to make new EVs price competitive with ICE cars, so that it is clearly the most economical option.

The other thing is that there are a few grants for the installation of chargers, but that is pretty limited and means tested.

Some car dealers and lease companies offer to fit an EV charger as well, but that isn't a government thing.

 

[Gadget Geek]

According to Robert Llewellyn, enquiries about EV's rose 5% after the fuel prices started to rise.

 

[Black estate]

I'm glad my work car is EV or I wouldn't have gone back to days a s fuel costs would have scuppered it

 

[GranTurismoEra]

War isnt ending anytime soon. So yeah for sure. Petrol will hit £2.00

 

[Rolfe]

Probably see the same in haulage

I think that might be the interesting effect. I was having an argument with a petrolhead on Twitter where I was being the smug git and he was saying, but what about all the other effects, the price rises and so on. I said that at least I wasn't using up fuel that delivery vehicles needed, and whereas the price rises hit everyone, at least I'm spared the fuel cost rises.

It got me thinking that a big chunk of the problem is that the commercial fleet has been slow to electrify. Shorter-haul deliveries in particular should be much more electrified than they are. But now the simple bottom line might start pushing the companies that were reluctant to dip their toes in the water.

 

[Black estate]

I think that might be the interesting effect. I was having an argument with a petrolhead on Twitter where I was being the smug git and he was saying, but what about all the other effects, the price rises and so on. I said that at least I wasn't using up fuel that delivery vehicles needed, and whereas the price rises hit everyone, at least I'm spared the fuel cost rises.

It got me thinking that a big chunk of the problem is that the commercial fleet has been slow to electrify. Shorter-haul deliveries in particular should be much more electrified than they are. But now the simple bottom line might start pushing the companies that were reluctant to dip their toes in the water.

Problem is pay load and range ,
The Merc I'm driving is combined with a Skeli container trailer is 16.5t with no box so leaves only 25.5t as it rated at 42T , but higher the weight higher the battery drain and couple that with a lead footed driver and lack of paying chargers
Southampton to Avon mouth running at 32t there and 20t back left me with 25% charge or 112mile range
If the charging network was better like cars ,
Also it's £47k to install a HGV charger in our yard as it needs 3 phase installed
Apart from Southampton docks the only other 2 pay as you go chargers are Exeter Moto M5 and Baldock Extra A1

 

[Bam Bam]

Problem is pay load and range ,
The Merc I'm driving is combined with a Skeli container trailer is 16.5t with no box so leaves only 25.5t as it rated at 42T , but higher the weight higher the battery drain and couple that with a lead footed driver and lack of paying chargers
Southampton to Avon mouth running at 32t there and 20t back left me with 25% charge or 112mile range
If the charging network was better like cars ,
Also it's £47k to install a HGV charger in our yard as it needs 3 phase installed
Apart from Southampton docks the only other 2 pay as you go chargers are Exeter Moto M5 and Baldock Extra A1

Does it have CCS charging?

Tobias the German Elektrotrucker sometimes unhitches his trailer and plugs in at car CCS chargers. Perhaps less space for that sort of thing at UK charging sites.

 

[Rolfe]

Problem is pay load and range ,
The Merc I'm driving is combined with a Skeli container trailer is 16.5t with no box so leaves only 25.5t as it rated at 42T , but higher the weight higher the battery drain and couple that with a lead footed driver and lack of paying chargers
Southampton to Avon mouth running at 32t there and 20t back left me with 25% charge or 112mile range
If the charging network was better like cars ,
Also it's £47k to install a HGV charger in our yard as it needs 3 phase installed
Apart from Southampton docks the only other 2 pay as you go chargers are Exeter Moto M5 and Baldock Extra A1

I'm sure you're right. But there are a lot of short-haul van routes that could be electrified relatively easily using overnight charging, but aren't.