Forecast ICE this winter

[akendall1966]

Really pleased with my MG5, but as I think about the cost of living crisis I observe straight running costs ( not total cost of ownership) just the cost of putting energy in so I can go somewhere.

Charging at home current capped tariffs, next month rise, and predictions of where it will go in 2023. Anticipate Mile/Kw to drop in the colder months. Only got the car early April so no experience of cold running. Longer trips needing rapid top up on route will be approx. 2~2.5x these numbers

​

	Now	​ Oct-22​	​ Jan-23​	​ Apr-23​
£/Kwh	£ 0.28	£ 0.52	£ 0.83	£0.97
Miles/Kwh	​ 4​	​ 3.5​	​ 3​	​ 3.5​
Cost Per mile	£ 0.07	£ 0.15	£ 0.28​	£ 0.28​

Compare that to the wife's 1.5 Mazda 2 supposed ~4.5 litres / 100Km @£1.70 a litre that's about £0.13/mile. Now oils prices could go up, but with the threat of a recession easily go down too. With pump prices following eventually.

Yes need to move to a tariff with off-peak discounts, working on that though Shell Energy keep fobbing me off. Got 7Kw of solar PV going on the roof next month, but as I work from home doubt there will be very much left over to charge the MG5 until the spring.

So I forecast quite a bit of ICE for me this winter, as the economics of an EV get F'd up by this equally F'd up world.

Thoughts.......
PS don't fancy spending half my free time camping out in supermarket carparks for free leccy.

 

[Lguk]

The EV/Smart Tarrifs seem to be the only viable option.

My old diesel commute vehicle was around 30p/mile at £1.70/litre. Mustang is about 45p/mile which means my once a week trips to work have been axed.

Comparatively my electric would need to be around 85p/kw (basing on 3m/kwh as I like to calculate on worst case). Currently Octopus weighs in at 7.5p/kwh for a maximum of 40% charge. Thankfully my commute round trip 30-35%. Those with longer daily mileage would then start dipping into the 40p rate. I'm exceptionally lucky and charge at work for free using excess solar.

Not having access to an EV tarrif or home charging means that its economically restrictive to move away from fossil fuels, something government policy and incentives have been trying to negate and are now failing achieve due to exponentially rising costs.

 

[BugEyed]

There's more to EVs than low fuel costs per mile. Like reducing emissions, pleasant driving experience, reduced servicing and toxic waste.

Oh, and low cost off-peak charging. Have you tried Octopus?

 

[Harry 17]

There's more to EVs than low fuel costs per mile. Like reducing emissions, pleasant driving experience, reduced servicing and toxic waste.

Oh, and low cost off-peak charging. Have you tried Octopus?

I have tried getting an Octopus deal for a couple of weeks now.

unfortunately, I have been unable to. I suspect when I can get a deal, the day rate they will possibly charge, will be too much when I factor in both of us work from home, and unfortunately have to full home office set ups PC’s /printers etc that the on peak would be very expensive.

Hopefully we will all get a little help, and the charges in the wings, may not quite materialise.

I do take on your points re: more to EV’s than cost, but at the end of the day, money talks etc……..

I should qualify, whilst we do both work from home, I am on site three days a week for half a day, hence my high mileage

 

[akendall1966]

Don't disagree with any thing you said. And not anti EV. But got to make the most cost effective choices.
As I said trying to sort out economy 7 tariff with shellenergy.co.uk. But as I work mostly at home need to balance peak use premium prices with off peak. That needs shifting more than EV charging into the small hours to make it work.

 

[Deep purple]

If you are getting 7KW of solar then a battery is almost essential, particularly in winter when solar output is lower. In intermittent sun a battery will smooth out the peaks and troughs and allow a steady car charge rate rather than it going off and on. In winter with solar output which may be lower than the minimum charge rate for an EV (1.4KW?) you can build up stored energy in the battery over many hours and then charge for a few hours.
In summer a battery will mean you can use the full output of your panels by charging the batteries fully during the day and then discharging them to support overnight demand.
Or if you get a very cheap overnight tariff you can charge up both the car and the battery at the same time.
You may need to watch your total demand though as, depending on what else you use electricity for, you might reach the limit of your house's supply. In which case uprating the single phase or going to 3 phase may be needed.

 

[Harry 17]

If you are getting 7KW of solar then a battery is almost essential, particularly in winter when solar output is lower. In intermittent sun a battery will smooth out the peaks and troughs and allow a steady car charge rate rather than it going off and on. In winter with solar output which may be lower than the minimum charge rate for an EV (1.4KW?) you can build up stored energy in the battery over many hours and then charge for a few hours.
In summer a battery will mean you can use the full output of your panels by charging the batteries fully during the day and then discharging them to support overnight demand.
Or if you get a very cheap overnight tariff you can charge up both the car and the battery at the same time.
You may need to watch your total demand though as, depending on what else you use electricity for, you might reach the limit of your house's supply. In which case uprating the single phase or going to 3 phase may be needed.

Not to mention a £13K outlay for a 7KW solar panel system with battery, currently.

Forget that, and I am with you all the way

 

[BugEyed]

But got to make the most cost effective choices.

So you need to look at whole life costs for the vehicle.

trying to sort out economy 7 tariff with shellenergy.co.uk.

A thankless task.

That needs shifting more than EV charging into the small hours to make it work.

So how much can you move without battery storage? It's surprisingly easy, and at current prices battery storage makes financial sense.

 

[akendall1966]

PV will in part replace our 12 year old solar thermal system. So leaning more towards a thermal store with excess solar heating the store for heating and hot water. Once we have some experience maybe a battery too. Certainly aiming to use 100% of energy produced in the house / car.

 

[akendall1966]

Not sure i agree with the whole life vehicles cost. This hopefully is a short term issue due to the war assuming the energy market re balance post war. Hence my looking at this coming winter and how to manage the cost of living crisis over the next few months.

 

[Harry]

PV will in part replace our 12 year old solar thermal system. So leaning more towards a thermal store with excess solar heating the store for heating and hot water. Once we have some experience maybe a battery too. Certainly aiming to use 100% of energy produced in the house / car.

With two evs (one a phev) and a house battery and solar excess used for water heating, I struggle to use over 50% of our solar production (total capacity 3.4 kW), when it is a very sunny day - as we have had a lot of recently..

 

[Jomarkh]

Why won't Shell let you have an Economy 7 tariff.

 

[Jomarkh]

I have tried getting an Octopus deal for a couple of weeks now.

What do Octopus say when you contact them about the delay in getting a Go tariff?

 

[Harry 17]

To be fair, I have just gone off the information telling me not to switch on their web site And log an email request when energy prices fall.

I am going to actually try to speak with an advisor today and See how I get on.

 

[akendall1966]

Why won't Shell let you have an Economy 7 tariff.

Its been a journey. We still had smets 1 meter that went dumb years ago when we switched. Pureplanet where going to upgrade them 4 days after they went bust, so that got cancelled. Punted to Shell by ofgem. 5 months to have an account set up. Filled in their request form 5 times noone ever responded . Made a complaint through thier complaints team. Got an appointment about a month after complaining, that was delayed 2 weeks. Finally got new meters about a month ago. Asked to go on economy 7 and was told had to wait 28 days from install for the meters to register on thier system so they can set the dual tariffs. That time is up now so will be trying again.

 

[Tweed98]

So you need to look at whole life costs for the vehicle.

It also depends on why you are buying the EV. If you are replacing a perfectly working ICE just to save money then the savings aren't at the moment there due to the capital cost, if you are replacing a car oneway or the other or your current car is at the end of its life/lease/PCP then the savings will still count.

 

[Gomev]

To be fair, I have just gone off the information telling me not to switch on their web site And log an email request when energy prices fall.

I am going to actually try to speak with an advisor today and See how I get on.

This is exactly what you need to do to switch. Provided you have the right smart meters it should not be a problem. Make sure you tell them you have an EV.

 

[Harry 17]

What do Octopus say when you contact them about the delay in getting a Go tariff?

Called and much the same advice as the website - not quoting on any tariffs presently, hope to be doing so in around 10 days time, after we have a new PM and the they find out if any help from government before they re-calculate their tariffs.

 

[Jomarkh]

Called and much the same advice as the website - not quoting on any tariffs presently, hope to be doing so in around 10 days time, after we have a new PM and the they find out if any help from government before they re-calculate their tariffs.

I think it depends who you get on the phone, as others have swapped recently.

 

[mourneuk]

I think it depends who you get on the phone, as others have swapped recently.

I switched 10 days ago without any issues (used your referral code too). Now I just have to hope that the company they send out to fit the smart meter can actually do it after the British Gas engineer who came last time was only interested in simple installs. I'll just offer them money to do it if they seem reluctant.