I've been doing some more experimentation, and I've found a better way to work things which is also very easy to operate. Today I seem to have it working perfectly. Here's the picture that tells the story.
Start charging the battery at midnight (having exported whatever was left, to end at 11.30 when the peak rate ends). It reaches 100% at 03:15. However I keep in on charge for the whole of the off-peak tariff to force the house to use the grid. Not a lot happens until 04:30 when the Eddi comes on to heat the water. It doesn't always take the full hour, but I give it till 05:30 anyway. That's the end of the off-peak period, when the water-heating stops and the battery is no longer on charge, so it can start powering the house load.
So far, this is just the same as the winter configuration. However, if clipping seems likely, I need to get the battery down low enough to accept that. So I start to export the battery at 05:30, stopping at 07:15, which gets it down to 30%. This is plenty to run the house for the evening in the event that the forecast is 180° wrong, but still leaves enough space to take any likely clipping (I think).
This is the main change from before. Yes the battery is still exporting after sunrise, but at that time the amount of solar, added to the battery export, isn't enough to push the total above my export limit. It also means the early morning is covered with no possibility of grid import if it's dull. (I may have to move this time back a bit as the sunrise gets earlier, we'll see.
At 07:15 the battery is now set to export to 100%, the setting that holds it at the SOC it had at the start, allowing it
only to take the surplus generation that might otherwise be clipped. This holds till 7 pm, when the solar is fading and the battery begins to be needed to run the house. In practice though, if I start to cook earlier, I'll just switch the export setting off at that point.
The battery runs the house through the evening, then I have to decide when to start exporting what's left to finish around 11.30. This is the bit I can't really automate it seems.
This has the advantage that it's mostly the same as the winter settings and I don't have to change much. I can charge the car between 11.30 and 5.30 as usual, while the battery is on charge, the water is heated last thing before the end of the off-peak tariff either way, and it doesn't interfere with washing machine or dishwasher use. All I need to do in the evening, when the battery has finished exporting, is to decide whether to leave the export slots active, so it does its clipping-harvesting thing, or switch them off, so that it goes into the morning at 100% and is always available to the house if required. That's where the weather forecast comes in. Any wee sunbeams showing in the middle of the day and it's probably worth it.
On the graph above you can see the battery charge from the grid from midnight until 03:15, then it's all quiet till the water heats 04:30 to about 05:15.
At 05:30 the grid stops powering the house and the battery starts to export. Towards the end of the export period the solar export is added to it, but in total it never reaches the 5 kw export limit.
At 7.15 the battery stops exporting and holds its 30% charge while all the solar goes to export. There was a bit of high, hazy cloud, but by about ten the generation had reached the clipping limit and the battery began to charge. It made it to 66% by about one o'clock, but after that there was more cloud and it didn't charge much more. The shenanigans about three o'clock were me boiling the kettle for coffee, having switched the battery export setting off momentarily just in case. I didn't have to do anything while I was making lunch as there was plenty solar to cover it.
I didn't start to make the tea until just after seven so I didn't need to alter anything. After that the battery was free to power the house (and get any solar that was still generating).
You can see where I turned up the heating about 8.30, and then at 10.40 the battery started to export what was left, as I had set that time some time earlier in the evening. I think it finished about 11.32, and then the grid took over, ready to start again tomorrow.
Basically a perfect demonstration, and I'm printing this one.