We can already see efforts to move domestic demand to align better with production peaks, and this has been happening in industry for some time. It would be impossible to completely smooth demand but there's a lot can be done with not too much cost/effort.
I think that we have to think much more deeply about how electricity will be used in the future. Tata steel have already been seeking support for electrification of steel production. Their aging blast furnaces will need replacement in a few years time. The Swedes have already trialled ore reduction and steel making at post laboratory scale. It works, a mix of electric hearth furnaces blasted with hydrogen and small amounts of coking coal for introducing carbon into the steel have made good steel. Cement making is another industry to move from coal, brick making and glass making need to be electrified. All these processes can use the cheap overnight power. But we shouldn’t worry about cheap electricity for cars. Hydrogen for home heating is now kicked into touch by MPs. So daytime consumption will increase massively too.
In my rambling note earlier I posited how much wind power is on its way in the next 2-3 years. Again we shouldn’t look too closely at GB (sic) on its own. Our neighbours in Europe will also face intermittency so will be desperate to share highs and lows of power production. Ireland has just announced 7GW of development, just a start for they have great wind resources out in the west. The Dutch and the Danes want to fill their North Sea areas with turbines, the Germans will join in too. By 2030 Scotland might have added over 27GW over and above their current build. The Celtic Sea might add 7 or more GW and planned extensions to current English wind farms should add another 7 GW. Plus areas in Morecambe bay and new areas on the Dogger Bank might add 7 GW.
Norway has deep waters off its coast but is planning a lot of wind development, presumably their crown fund see it as a way of replacing oil revenues with electricity revenues. And I haven’t mentioned the plans to electrify oil production. I haven’t delved into it but presumably all the rigs and pumps out at sea gobble up gas which could be brought ashore. So the areas are mapped out as to where the oil industry should use wind power to electrify production. The potential power available is massive, but maybe too far from shore to exploit for the mainlands of Europe.
And costs will continue to fall. Much of the learning has been done costs for floating wind are high until the risks are fully known and production line techniques become the norm. The grid in particular will need a lot of costly upgrades, but it is now old and due for refurbishment in many places, in some places it is underused and where it needs reinforcement the costs will be recovered. Think it as an aeroplane, no good having it if it is not flying, the grid will be working harder over 24 hours a day, as will local networks so that unit costs per kWh should fall.
My household has moved from oil heating and diesel motoring to ASHP and EV. Our electricity consumption has increased from ~ 3,500 kWh to 10,500 kWh. Motoring has added about 1,200 kWh. Our ratio of day to night is about 50:50 on Intelligent Octopus tariff. Now retired but thinking back to when we were working our motoring would have demanded 5,000 kWh at its peak, not many people drive 18,000 miles a year for work!
